p(doom) is an informal probabilistic estimate, expressed as a value between 0 and 1, of the likelihood that advanced AI development leads to an existential catastrophe for humanity—typically through loss of control over a misaligned superintelligent system. The metric is widely discussed in AI safety research communities as a shorthand for aggregating personal credences about existential risk, and is distinct from rigorous formal risk models, serving primarily as a rhetorical and community-calibration tool.
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- p(doom) is the probability of an event called “doom” occurring. In statistics, the probability represents the likelihood of an event happening, and it usually ranges between 0 and 1. A value of 0 indicates that the event is impossible, while a value of 1 means that the event is certain to occur. In current AI parlance it’s a measure of people’s instinctive fear of humans being existentially threatened by the existence of AI.
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